Ivan Sichen, an expert of the “Borysfen Intel” Centre, for Gazeta.ua

After the failures at the front in Ukraine, another shock for Russia was the May 22 breakthrough to the Belgorod region of units of the Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC) and the Freedom of Russia Legion, which actually are an armed opposition to Putin’s regime. Moreover, they not only passed through the vaunted line of engineering fortifications, which has been built on the Russian-Ukrainian border since last autumn, but also captured a number of Bryansk settlements and one of the border checkpoints.

This was the first of such challenges to the Kremlin since the Second Chechen War of 1999–2009. Despite the fact that the units of Russian rebels, or as they are also called — partisans, were driven out of the territory of Russia, this event was quite revealing. And its consequences can have a significant impact both on the situation in Russia and on the course of Putin’s war against Ukraine.

Especially — open military actions of the RVC and the Freedom of Russia Legion, such as breakthroughs to the border areas of Russia. A similar case took place in early March 2023 in Bryansk region, but it was smaller and is only one of the forms of their opposition to the Putin regime. In fact, they and other opponents of Putin’s government are engaged in classical guerrilla warfare in terms of sabotage actions against military institutions and individual units. As well as objects of railway and energy infrastructure and enterprises manufacturing weapons and ammunition. It is worth mentioning systematic arson attacks on military commissariats, blowing up railway tracks and bridges and damaging signaling equipment, arson attacks on oil refineries and oil depots.

All this is aimed at:

• undermining the positions of the ruling elite of the Russian Federation and its proxies in the regions by spreading panic among the population of the country;
• demonstration of their readiness to seize power by military means;
• weakening of law enforcement agencies and demoralization of their personnel;
• disruption of normal work and damage to the Russian economy as one of the foundations of stability of the Putin regime.

At present, the RVC and the Freedom of Russia Legion do not yet have sufficient opportunities to achieve these goals, but they are making active efforts to implement their plans. This is exactly what the breakthrough of their armed units to Bryansk region of the Russian Federation was aimed at. Therefore, the mentioned event, which had the most resonant character, deserves special attention. Assessments on this issue have been repeatedly provided by various media, politicians and experts. However, we would like to look at it in a more comprehensive form.

Thus, the military and guerrilla actions of the RVC and the Freedom of Russia Legion and other opponents of the Putin regime have shown that the armed opposition in Russia does exist and is ready to take decisive measures in confrontation with the current government of the country. This undermines one of the main ideological attitudes of the Kremlin regarding “the Russian population’s cohesion around the Kremlin on the basis of the ideas of Russia’s unity and its struggle against the West”.

From now on, everybody has realized that there is no unity. Therefore, Moscow cannot rely on it in conducting its foreign policy (in fact, aggressive neo-imperial expansion). The same applies to the Kremlin’s domestic policy, which is based on the same ideology and justifies it for steps to suppress human rights and freedoms in the country, as well as to prevent any criticism of the government and protests against it.

At the same time, a powerful blow was dealt to the authority of the Putin regime, which attached particular importance to strengthening the Russian Armed Forces as one of the main tools in ensuring the country’s security and supporting its foreign policy by military means.

Despite the fact that huge money was invested into the development of the Russian Armed Forces, they not only failed to capture Ukraine, but even to protect the border of the Russian Federation itself. Similarly, the Rosgvardia, the Federal Security Service (FSB) and other security forces, which were also actively strengthened by the Kremlin as a guarantee of internal stability of the country, failed to successfully prevent the spread of partisan activity on Russian territory.

On May 22, hostilities began in Belgorod region, for which the formation of ethnic Russians — the RVC and the Freedom of Russia Legion — took responsibility. Both are fighting on the side of Ukraine. Russian local authorities announced the infiltration of the “Ukrainian sabotage groups (DRGs)” and introduced a regime of “counter-terrorist operation”, which was later canceled. On May 23, the Freedom of Russia Legion and the RVC announced that they were continuing the operation to “liberate” Belgorod region.
Source: Telegram channel of the Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC)

The system of engineering barriers on Russia’s border with Ukraine turned out to be completely ineffective. As it turned out, the funds for its construction were embezzled by local authorities and contractors, as a result of which it did not meet the requirements. And it was practically not guarded by Russian troops, which provided an opportunity for its breakthrough.

This situation causes misunderstanding in the Russian society and an increasing negative attitude to the country’s leadership. Moreover, there is already a real panic, which was clearly shown by the situation in Belgorod region and other neighboring regions of Russia after the events of May 22.

But that’s not all. Perhaps these trends do not worry Putin, as they can be suppressed by police methods and propaganda, which is currently being done.

More scary is another thing. The ruling elite of the Russian Federation is already harshly criticized by the so-called systemic opposition, in particular, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, various national-chauvinist parties and the founder of the private military company “Wagner” Yevgeny Prigozhin. So they can create real problems for the Kremlin, because they have a fairly powerful electorate. Prigozhin also has his own armed formations.

That is why Prigozhin allows himself public insults to Russian Defense Minister Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Gerasimov, which for someone else would result in many years of prison, or even death.

Of course, his PMC cannot be compared with all the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, but it can disperse into separate units and start a guerrilla war against the Russian army, which will cause significant damage to it. Both Prigozhin himself and Shoigu and Gerasimov know this. Therefore, they do not touch him.

Under such circumstances, Moscow is hastily strengthening the defense of the border with Ukraine and taking additional security measures in the border regions of the country. At this, given the shortage of necessary reserves, Russian troops are being removed from the front. In particular, they are withdrawn from the occupied territories of southern Ukraine. Consequently, the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine are losing opportunities for active offensive and defensive operations.

Despite the Kremlin’s measures to strengthen border defense and security in the border regions of Russia, in general, these circumstances contribute to the activities of the RVC and the Freedom of Russia Legion, as well as partisan groups and individual partisans, as they destabilize Putin’s regime.

Thus, according to the leaders of these organizations, the breakthrough of their units to Belgorod region is only the beginning and reconnaissance-in-force. The strategic goals of the resistance forces of Putin’s regime are to overthrow its power. As a result, after Belgorod region, Kursk and Bryansk regions will also be liberated, and then the movement to Moscow will begin. The forces for this are not enough yet, but they will definitely be.

Source: Telegram channel of the Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC)

With the increase in losses of the Russian Armed Forces and the Rosgvardia on the front in Ukraine without real success, as well as the deterioration of the Russian economy due to Western sanctions and, to some extent, the actions of partisans, dissatisfied with Putin’s regime in Russia, keep growing. Most of them take passive positions, but some do join movements of armed resistance and partisans. Despite their relatively small number, the asymmetric methods of resistance, which are precisely used by the partisans, can change the real balance of forces of the parties in their favor.

Evidence of this is the expansion of the scale of armed actions of the rebels against Putin’s government, as happened in Belgorod region, and an increase in the number of sabotage actions in Russia. Moreover, there is an impression of coordination of their actions from one or several centers, which means unification and systematic structuring of anti-Kremlin resistance movements. Of course, a full-scale uprising in Russia is still far away, but it can come true if it loses the war against Ukraine.

It should also be noted that in addition to Putin’s opponents, Russia has various radical Islamist movements that have their own armed formations and terrorize the authorities in the North Caucasus. Now they are hardly noticeable, but in the 1990s and 2000s they posed a major threat to Russia. At this, they not only carried out separate terrorist acts throughout Russia, but also captured entire cities and districts, which was the cause of the First and Second Chechen wars. Their circumstances are well known from recent history, so we will not retell the events of that time. Let us just remind some facts:

• mass hostage-taking in Budionovsk in June 1995;
• Islamists’ invasion of Dagestan in July-August 1999;
• explosions of residential buildings in Moscow, Buynaksk and Volgodonsk in September 1999;
• Beslan school attack in September 2004.

Under certain conditions, in particular, weakening of the Russian government and its power structures, Islamists can also move to more active sabotage and terrorist actions as part of a guerrilla warfare against local and central authorities in order to create conditions for building their own Islamic state. Especially — given the increase in the number of supporters of radical Islamism in the Russian Federation.

The growth of the number of opponents of Putin’s regime and their switching to an armed struggle against the Russian government has a positive significance for our state. First of all, it concerns the distraction of Russia’s attention and resources from Ukraine. Moscow has already been forced to withdraw its troops from the front in Ukraine and redeploy them to Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk regions.

As a result, Russia has already reduced the intensity of hostilities to some extent. And the Ukrainian troops received additional opportunities to defend their positions and conduct a counteroffensive.

Rebel armed uprisings and guerrilla sabotage actions could also be a catalyst for Russia’s internal crisis, forcing it to end the war, as the former Soviet Union did after Afghanistan. In any case, Ukraine will only benefit from the weakening of the aggressor country, which is the Russian Federation.

However, Moscow already accuses Ukraine of supporting rebels and partisans in Russia, which is done both to discredit our state before the international community and to justify the Russian Federation’s own actions against us. In this regard, actions such as the breakthrough of the RVC and the Freedom of Russia Legion to Belgorod region from Ukrainian territory can be deliberately provoked by Russia’s special services. In particular, to justify a new invasion of Ukraine from the northeast. Another massive strike on Kyiv with the use of Iranian UAVs was inflicted by Russia on the night of May 25 — two days after the events in Belgorod region.

Another significant problem may be attacks by rebels and partisans on Russian critical infrastructure, in particular — nuclear and chemical. This will create a threat of man-made disasters with large-scale negative consequences not only for the Russian Federation but also for its neighboring countries.

Author: Ivan Sichen, military expert, retired Colonel

Source: Gazeta.ua

The article is available in Russian